Foreclosure Inventory Down 31% in 2013, Slow Progress Expected in 2014

National foreclosure inventory fell 31 percent year-over-year in December, with 2.1 percent of all homes with a mortgage in some stage of foreclosure, according to CoreLogic's December National Foreclosure Report.

Completed foreclosures also declined year-over-year in December, though at a somewhat lower rate of 14 percent, according to CoreLogic.

Despite declines, foreclosures remain elevated compared to historical norms. From 2000 through 2006, about 21,000 foreclosures were completed each month.

In December 45,000 foreclosures were completed, down from 47,000 in November and 52,000 in December 2012.

"Clearly, 2013 was a transitional year for residential property in the United States," said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic.

"Higher home prices and lower shadow inventory levels, together with a slowly improving economy, are hopeful signals that we are turning a long-awaited corner," Nallathambi said.

However, he anticipates "progress to remain very slow" this year.

Five states accounted for nearly half of all completed foreclosures in 2013. Those states included Florida with 119,000 foreclosures, Michigan with 53,000 foreclosures, California with 39,000 foreclosures, Texas with 39,000 foreclosures, and Georgia with 35,000 foreclosures completed over the year.

At the other end of the spectrum, the five states with the fewest foreclosures completed in 2013 were the District of Columbia with 63 foreclosures, North Dakota with 417 foreclosures, Hawaii with 493 foreclosures, West Virginia with 505 foreclosures, and Wyoming with 759 foreclosures.

The states ranking highest for the percentage of foreclosure inventory as of year-end is not consistent with the list of states with the highest numbers of completed foreclosures over the year, except that Florida ranked highest in both categories.

In Florida, 6.7 percent of all homes with a mortgage are in some stage of foreclosure.

Florida is followed by New Jersey (6.5 percent), New York (4.9 percent), Connecticut (3.6 percent), and Maine (3.6 percent).

States with the smallest foreclosure inventory rates in December were Wyoming (0.4 percent), Alaska (0.5 percent), North Dakota (0.6 percent), Colorado (0.6 percent), and Nebraska (0.6 percent).

In total, 4.8 million foreclosures have been completed since the start of the housing crisis in September 2008, according to CoreLogic.

For more information contact

Jerry Gusman, The Gusman Group

(888) 213-4208

jerryggroup@aol.com

First-Time Buyers Face Affordability Issues

The degree to which a homebuyer can afford a house depends greatly on whether the buyer already owns a home, according to a report released Thursday by Mark Fleming, chief economist at CoreLogic.

After a few years in a favorable market, first-time buyers are starting to face a tougher time, Fleming reports. The market overall is being affected by the intersection of rising home prices, rising interest rates and stagnating incomes, which puts first-time buyers behind the curve that has benefitted them greatly since 2007.

According to CoreLogic, affordability—the measure of buyers' ability to purchase a home and make a down payment given their income and the prevailing interest rate—was low in the early 2000s, particularly in the four years between 2003 and 2007, when market prices rose modestly and interest rates were as high as 8 percent. Then in 2007, home prices started to decline. The situation was exacerbated by the Great Recession, leading to a sharp drop in housing prices, open markets and historically low interest rates through 2012 and 2013.

In that time frame, Fleming says, the drop in housing prices and interest rates created a market that first-time buyers could take advantage of. But with the economy growing, despite relatively flat incomes, first-time buyers increasingly face higher home prices in drier markets.

This news, when taken with historical perspective, is hardly the "affordability shock" some economists make it out to be, Fleming says. Yes, affordability (as measured by the National Association of Realtors' Housing Affordability Index) is down as much as 22 percent from its January 2013 peak, but is still far higher than it was in the early 2000s.

Moreover, Fleming says, there is almost no change in affordability for buyers who already own a home. The simple reason is that existing homeowners have equity that can be directly transferred to the purchase of a new home, meaning that existing buyers—particularly those in good financial standing—have fewer concerns over making down payments or establishing new mortgages.

Whether current trends will make houses unaffordable to most buyers by the end of 2014 remains to be seen, Fleming says. But he is sure of one thing—whatever happens, first-time buyers will be the ones who feel it the most.

For more information or assistance contact

Jerry Gusman, The Gusman Group

(888) 213-4208

jerryggroup@aol.com

Fewer Prospective Homeowners to Clash Over Homes

Home buying competition rose over the month of January but was down from last January, according to national real estate brokerage Redfin, which took the year-over-year decline as a sign that low inventory and rising prices are thwarting demand in the housing market.

About 58 percent of home offers by Redfin agents encountered a competing offer in January compared to nearly 53 percent in December. Competition increased in all 22 markets in which Redfin has a presence. However, the rate is still down significantly from the 70 percent recorded in January 2013.

While Redfin anticipates competition will be “a prominent fixture” in the housing market in the short-run, the brokerage expects declining demand and rising inventory to keep competition at bay later in the year. Rising prices prevent many home shoppers from feeling that they are “getting a deal,” according to Redfin, and low inventory is discouraging to some shoppers as well.

The average home sold in January sold for 0.9 percent lower than the asking price, according to Redfin. Just two of the 22 markets observed reported the average home selling for more than the asking price: San Jose, California, and San Francisco, California, where about half of homes sold for more than the asking price. The average home in San Jose sold for 2.9 percent above its asking price, while the average home in San Francisco sold for 2.1 percent above its asking price.

Interest Rate Declines Continue into February

This week brought more news of declines in mortgage interest rates, according to releases from Freddie Mac and Bankrate.com.

In its weekly published Primary Mortgage Market Survey, Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 4.23 percent (0.7 point) for the week ending February 6, down from 4.32 percent previously. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) sat at 3.53 percent.

The 15-year FRM averaged 3.33 percent (0.7 point) this week, down from last week’s 3.40 percent.

Averages on adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) also fell, with the 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid ARM dropping 4 basis points to 3.08 percent (0.5 point) and the 1-year ARM decreasing the same amount to 2.51 percent (0.5 point).

Frank Nothaft, VP and chief economist for Freddie Mac, once again pointed to weaker housing data as a factor in this week’s rate changes, noting declines in December pending home sales and a negative contribution to GDP from fixed residential investment.

“Also, the Institute for Supply Management reported a significant slowing in growth in the manufacturing industry in December than the market consensus forecast,” Nothaft added.

In its own weekly survey, Bankrate reported a drop of 7 basis points in the 30-year fixed average to 4.43 percent, with the 15-year fixed falling 6 points to 3.50 percent.

The 5/1 ARM also declined, decreasing 10 basis points to 3.27 percent.

“Worries about a slowdown in the U.S. and global economics and continued skittishness about the health of emerging markets is pushing investors into safe haven U.S. Treasury securities,” Bankrate said in a release. “This has brought the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield from 3 percent down into the 2.6 percent neighborhood, with mortgage rates hitting levels last seen just before Thanksgiving.”

The 5 Worst Things You Can Do Before Buying a Home

Cynics may scoff, but getting under contract on the right home can turn even the most stoic shopper into a bit of a dreamer. From paint colors to planting a garden, picturing yourself in that property is critical for many buyers.

But leave a little room for pragmatism. Remember thatgetting pre-approved for a mortgage and even under contract isn’t a guarantee. That prefix is there for a reason. Loan pre-approval is not loan approval.

You’ll have more hurdles to clear before a lender legally commits to funding your home loan. Buyers who don’t know any better can inadvertently add obstacles to that path — or even kill the entire deal —between contract and closing day.

Some missteps can be costlier than others. Here’s a look at five of the worst things you can do before buying a home.

1. Go Credit-Crazy

It’s almost become cliché in the mortgage industry, but the warning still bears repeating: Don’t buy a truckload of furniture until after your loan closes. The prohibition goes beyond sofas and settees — avoid obtaining credit for any major expense, such as a car, a boat or, yes, a new bedroom set.

Be careful with even minor expenses. If you absolutely need to obtain new credit or accrue debt before closing, talk with your loan officer as soon as possible.

New payments are going to affect your monthly debt-to-income ratio (and residual income on a VA loan), and not in a good way. Hard inquiries on your credit report could also lower your credit score. That might hurt your interest rate if you haven’t locked or even knock you out of qualifying range all together.

2. Shuffle Dollars and Cents

Lenders will scour your most recent bank statement as part of the pre-approval process. It’s not like they forget about it after that. They’ll take another look at your assets and bank records again during the underwriting process.

You’ll need to explain any unusual deposits or withdrawals. Lenders will require clear documentation and a paper trail if you’re putting gift funds toward a down payment or closing costs. Stuffing a wad of undocumented cash into your account is going to raise some red flags.

3. Get Behind on Bills

Having a late payment hit your credit report before closing can devastate your deal. Payment history comprises about a third of your credit score.

One solitary 30-day late payment can clip 60 to 110 points from your credit score. Maybe not a huge deal if you had an 800 score, right?

Possibly. But if that 30-day late blemish is a mortgage or rent payment, some lenders will boot your application altogether. Many will require at least 12 consecutive months of on-time payments to qualify for a home loan.

4. Co-Sign on a Loan

Co-signing a loan is arguably a bad financial move whenever you make it. But it’s especially risky during the mortgage lending process. It means you’re financially liable for someone else’s debt.

Yes, that someone else might be the most responsible person on the planet. Lenders will still need to factor that new monthly obligation into your overall affordability profile. Adding one more debt to the list could stretch too thin your debt-to-income ratio and assets.

5. Changes in Employment

Probably goes without saying, but losing your job is going to be a big problem. Even job-hopping can present some major hurdles. Lenders crave stable, reliable income that’s likely to continue.

Lenders are likely to slam on the brakes if you take a new job in a different field. Or if you decide to start your own business. Or even if you get a promotion but see some or all of your income shift to a commission basis.

The bottom line: Any change to your employment is significant. Keep your loan officer in the loop, and ask questions when in doubt. The last thing you want is to waste time and money on a home loan you’re never going to get.

Throughout the mortgage process, it can also be helpful to monitor your credit scores for changes so you can know whether you need to address any problems. To do that, you can use a free tool like Credit.com’s Credit Report Card, which updates your credit scores and an overview of your credit report every month.

New QM (Qualified Mortgage) Rules Produce Higher Costs and Elevated Risk Factors

In order to achieve a higher rate of accuracy in defect detection, he said, "That's going to eventually prompt the industry to go from its current manual methods to something much higher tech that produces more efficient results without having to crack a loan file every time a defect rate needs to be calculated," he continued.

Showalter said that lender communities, especially the larger ones, are starting to explore such technology that will detect manufacturing defects, enabling them to take a more efficient look at a broader population of loans.

Among smaller and mid-sized lenders that do not have the financial ability to purchase such technology, he said there are two trends emerging.

"One is that some are also seeking less expensive tools that will help augment their process in surveying loans electronically and therefore not expend as much labor in the process of analyzing and meeting a defect rate goal," Showalter explained. "Others are thinking about issuing non-QM qualified mortgages and selling them on the private market, therefore avoiding any dealings with the GSEs,” he continued.

However, he noted that at the present time, this segment is waiting and watching to see what may happen to the private label market.

Showalter thinks a coming trend will be that small lenders may rely on larger ones who have invested millions in the creation of infrastructure capable of managing the new and more stringent loan requirements. "I honestly think that the loan manufacturing requirements placed on the industry is far more than most lenders will be able to respond to quickly, especially the smaller or mid-sized ones," he concluded.

Showalter offers some predictions for 2014: "I think you will see bigger lenders buying up smaller ones so that they can increase their market share and spread the expenses for compliance across more loans. Another reason for acquisition and consolidation is that the mortgage loan volume is not particularly high right now, and as long as it's in the doldrums, there will be a lot of pressure to consolidate."

He also believes that although housing prices have gone up a little and interest rates are still stable, median income and the labor participation rate will continue to go down. "This means there are fewer well-employed people who are able to qualify and buy a home," he explained. "In addition, most origination now is going to be on a purchase money basis as opposed to a refinance basis, which brought in a lot of borrowers in the past several years. Now mortgage lenders are looking for purchase money candidates, and let's face it, the number of fish in that pond is just not what it used to be.”

Housing Inventory Continues Fall in January

Housing inventory declined more than 9 percent over the month of January in the 19 markets in which online real estate brokerage Redfin has a presence, according to the company’s Real-Time Price Tracker for January. The decline marks the fourth consecutive monthly drop in inventory, according to Redfin.

"A year ago, we didn't think inventory could go any lower, yet we're beginning 2014 with another disappointment," Redfin stated in its January report.

With the caveat that "it is too soon to tell," the brokerage did offer some optimism regarding inventory in coming months, revealing "Redfin agents report that most of their home selling clients are planning to list between March and May."

Sellers say they believe they will receive better offers during spring home buying season, and they believe when they do list their homes, they will sell easily and quickly.

The report also indicates the market is in somewhat of a catch-22: Sellers are reluctant to list their homes for sale while inventory is so low, as they are unsure they will be able to find and afford a new home, according to Redfin.

Home sales declined closely in line with inventory, falling almost 10 percent in January. However, Redfin explains this is no surprise, as January's home sales result from offers made during the holiday season, often "the lowest point of the year."

Home prices in Redfin's 19 markets increased 14.3 percent year-over-year in January, similar to last January’s 14 percent year-over-year increase. Price appreciation, which accelerated over the first half of the year, slowed in the second half but ticked up again in December and January, according to Redfin's data. In April, prices rose 18.7 percent over the year. In October, price appreciation was down to 12.6 percent.

West Coast markets experienced the greatest price appreciation in January, according to Redfin's observation of its markets. Prices rose most in Las Vegas, Nevada (24.6 percent); Ventura, California (21.1 percent); and Riverside, California (21 percent).

Of the 19 markets, inventory dropped most in Boston, Massachusetts (-31.8 percent); Chicago, Illinois (-25.6 percent); and Portland, Oregon (-24.4 percent).

For more information contact

Jerry Gusman, The Gusman Group

888-213-4208

jerryggroup@aol.com

Housing Affordability Drops in California

The California Association of Realtors (CAR) released its Traditional Housing Affordability Index (HAI) on Wednesday, revealing declining levels of affordability in the Golden State.

The CAR reported only 32 percent of home buyers could afford to purchase a median-priced, existing single-family home in California. The report noted a gradual slowing of home prices in the fourth quarter of 2013, helping affordability.

The Index is considered the most fundamental measure of housing well-being for home buyers in the state.

The median home price for California was $431,510 in Q4 2013. The figure represents an increase from Q4 2012, where the median price for a home was $352,450.

To purchase a median-priced home in California, homebuyers needed to earn a minimum annual income of $89,240. Compared to 2012, where homebuyers needed to earn an income of $66,860, affordability of homes in California has declined for six consecutive quarters.

California housing affordability hit a record high of 56 percent in Q1 2012, but has steadily fallen. A lack of housing supply and high demand drove up home prices sharply and significantly reduced affordability.

Metro Areas See Home Price Growth; But Some Face Affordability Issues

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their latest quarterly report Tuesday, highlighting upwards trends in existing family home prices. An additional annual affordability report showed less favorable conditions for home affordability.

The report revealed an increase in existing single-family home price in 73 percent of measured markets, citing 119 of 164 metropolitan areas showing gains based on closings in the fourth quarter. While still a positive trend in pricing, there were fewer price increases as seen in the third quarter with an 88 percent increase from a year earlier.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there are two ways of looking at the price gains. "The vast majority of homeowners have seen significant gains in equity over the past two years, which is helping the economy through increased consumer spending," he said. "At the same time, home prices have been rising faster than incomes, while mortgage interest rates are above the record lows of a year ago. This is beginning to hamper housing affordability."

The national median existing single-family home price was $196,900 in the fourth quarter, up 10.1 percent from $178,900 in the fourth quarter of 2012. In the third quarter, the median price rose 12.5 percent from a year earlier.

Yun noted that a tight supply of existing homes and a decrease in production of new homes are two driving factors in the elevated prices.

"New home construction activity needs to increase significantly in the fast appreciating markets to help relieve upward price pressure,” Yun said. In 2013, housing starts totaled 924,000, well below the historic average of 1.5 million units.

Yun continued: "Added housing supply will help moderate price growth this year, and should help to stem erosion in affordability, but mortgage interest rates are projected to rise above 5 percent by the end of the year."

Steve Brown, NAR President and co-owner of Irongate, Inc. Realtors, cautioned consumers to keep in mind that all real estate is local. "The national figures provide useful background, but it really gets down to supply and demand in a given neighborhood," he said. "Metropolitan area figures are an excellent gauge of local housing markets, but there can be widely ranging conditions within a metro area."

The NAR also released its Housing Affordability Index (HAI). The index reported a decrease in affordability, noting a score of 175.8 in 2013 from a record high 196.5 in 2012.

An index of 100 is defined as the point where a median-income household has exactly enough income to qualify for the purchase of a median-priced existing single-family home, assuming a 20 percent down payment and 25 percent of gross income devoted to mortgage principal and interest payments.

In each of the four regions listed in the HAI, total existing home sales declined.

Particularly notable was the West Region, where existing-home sales dropped 12.7 percent in the fourth quarter, and are 8.1 percent below a year ago.

Due to the decline of available homes, the median existing single-family home price in the West jumped 15.5 percent to $286,200 in the fourth quarter from the fourth quarter of 2012.

What does this mean for home buyers and sellers? Don't miss your window of opportunity! Buy a home now before interest rates rise and cut your buying power. And, Sellers, sell now while you can still get top dollar for yopur home and while interest rates are more affordable.

Buying or selling in Southern California? Contact The Gusman Group at (888) 213-4208. The Gusman Group has been been rated as one of the top Real Estate Agencies in Southern California.

National Association Of Realtors Chief Economist Reveals 2014 Predictions

Speaking at the 2013 Realtors Conference & Expo Friday, National Association of Realtors (NAR) chief economist National Association of Realtors predicted steadiness in existing-home sales over the next year as prices continue to ascend.

Looking over the past year, Yun said he expects existing-home sales to be up about 10 percent in 2013 to 5.13 million. Sales in 2014 are expected to hold fairly even at about 5.12 million.

Reviewing price movements, he said the national median existing-home price should end this year about 11 percent higher than 2012, climbing to $197,000. Next year's growth is expected to be cut nearly in half at about 6 percent.

Over the past two years, Yun says existing-home sales have shown a 20 percent cumulative increase, while prices have gained 18 percent. Meanwhile, incomes have only barely risen, coming up somewhere between 2-4 percent.

"We've come off of record high housing affordability conditions in the past year, and are now at a five-year low, but conditions are still the fifth best in the past 40 years," Yun said, noting that the median-income family should still be "well-positioned" to buy a home in 2014 in many areas.

Aside from affordability, ongoing headwinds include limited inventory conditions and stringent mortgage standards, both of which are expected to continue as housing starts struggle and business costs remain elevated for lenders.

On housing production, Yun forecasts 917,000 starts through the end of 2013 and 1.13 million in 2014, which still falls short of the underlying demand of about 1.5 million.

Sales of new homes are expected to total 429,000 in 2013 and 508,000 next year.

Based on his forecasts, Yun says the top 10 markets to watch for a housing turn around in 2014 are Salt Lake City, Utah; Naples and Tampa, Florida; Atlanta, Georgia; Boise, Idaho; Houston, Texas; Charlotte, North Carolina; Denver, Colorado; Seattle, Washington; and Tucson, Arizona.

For more information contact

Jerry Gusman, The Gusman Group

(888) 213-4208

jerryggroup@aol.com

Luxury High-End Home Sales Rise in California

The number of homes sold for more than $1 million in California increased 45.1 percent in 2013 against 2012, according to real estate information service DataQuick.

Last year, 39,175 homes sold over the million dollar mark versus 2012's 26,993 homes. Of those homes, 10,602 were bought with cash.

Those homes that were financed in this price bracket had a median down payment of 30 percent, and the firms most willing to provide financing were Union Bank, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo.

"The luxury home market is unique, always has been. It responds to its own set of economic factors. Things like job growth, mortgage interest rates and migration patterns do not play the same role as IPOs, stock market performance or how well one type of investment does compared to another, and where one wants to park one's excess money. The $2 million threshold seems to be a more interesting cutoff point. Homes selling below that level do seem more responsive to the more traditional market factors," DataQuick president John Walsh said.

The sales numbers year-over-year for the $1 million, $2-3 million, $3-4 million, $4-5 million, and $5 million-plus price ranges all saw growth. Homes selling for $2-3 million and for more than $5 million both set all-time records.

Newly built homes and condo sales in the $1 million-plus price category were both up over their 2012 numbers.

Overall, home sales in California were down by 0.6 percent in 2013, dropping from 449,059 homes sold to 446,319. 

Interested in selling your home? You can start by visiting a new web site www.whatsmyhouseworthCA.com, offered by The Gusman Group, Southern California's top Real Estate Marketing Agents. The Gusman Group has established themselves as a Top Luxury Real Estate Marketing agency in the past couple years Specializing in securing specialty buyers for special properties.

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Expired MortgageTax Relief Could Increase Pressure on Troubled Borrowers

The Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act's (MFDRA) expiration may lead to negative pressure on liquidation timelines and recoveries for legacy U.S. mortgage investors if the act is not renewed, according to Fitch Ratings.

Recently expired as of January 1, the MFDRA was signed into law December 2007 with the purpose of aiding underwater mortgage holders. Fitch Ratings projects a negative effect from the MFDRA’s expiration.

The act was designed to provide tax relief by allowing certain borrowers to exclude mortgage debt that was cancelled or forgiven by the lender through a foreclosure, short sale, or loan modification—debt that would normally be considered income for tax purposes.

Without this relief, Fitch expects a decline in the volume of short sales and principal forgiveness modifications. The agency cites three reasons for its projection:

• Without the tax exemption, there is less incentive for distressed borrowers to agree to a voluntary property sale that will not pay the loan off in full, likely increasing the number of involuntary foreclosure sales.
• The MFDRA's expiration provides less incentive for servicers to offer principal forgiveness modifications. The tax burden on the borrower increases the likelihood of redefault.
• Servicers may increasingly opt for principal forbearance, which requires the borrower to repay the reduced principal amount at the end of the loan term.

Congress is currently considering extending the tax relief through 2015 or 2016.

For more information Contact:

Jerry Gusman, The Gusman Group

(888) 213-=4208

jerryggroup@aol.com

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Current Home Sellers Concerned About Financing Availability, Inventory

While homeowners are feeling more confident about the prospect of selling their homes, they do harbor concerns regarding the availability of home financing and the low inventory available for their next purchases, according to the Redfin Real-Time Seller Survey released Tuesday.

About 38 percent of home sellers say now is a good time to sell a home, according to the Redfin surveyconducted in the first quarter of the year.

This is up from 34 percent in the previous quarter and up significantly from 22 percent a year ago.

Denver Redfin agent Paul Stone captures survey-takers’ sentiment, saying, “Most of my home-selling clients worry the most about what will happen after they sell.”

“With so much competition in the market, they fear they will have to move in with their in-laws if they can’t find their next home quickly,” he added.

In fact, the top two concerns for home sellers in the first quarter were the low inventory of homes available for their next home purchases and the financing environment, which might preclude potential buyers from being able to purchase their homes.

Low inventory was also a top concern in the previous quarter, cited among 30 percent of respondents, but concern about buyer financing is up 5 percentage points from the previous quarter.

“These concerns likely reflect higher prices and mortgage rates, which have harmed affordability, and stricter lending regulations that went into effect in January and could impact some buyers’ ability to get a loan,” stated Redfin analyst Ellen Haberle.

Redfin added a new category to its survey, “competition for next home,” which was marked as a concern among 27 percent of survey respondents.

While sellers have increased their concerns regarding financing, they are substantially less concerned with the overall economy.

In the fourth quarter, 39 percent of survey respondents cited “general economic conditions” as a concern. In the first quarter, just 26 percent reflected this concern.

Mortgage rates played at least a partial role in more than half of current home sellers’ decisions to list their homes for sale, according to the Redfin survey. Fifty-two percent of sellers said mortgage rates were a factor in their decision.

More sellers plan to upgrade to a larger or nicer home than to downsize or move to a different location. Forty-four percent of sellers plan to upgrade after selling their current home, whereas 29 percent plan to move to a new location, and 16 percent plan to downsize, according to Redfin.

Redfin surveyed 466 homeowners in 22 metros across the country for its quarterly survey.

For more information contact

Jerry Gusman

The Gusman Group, (888) 213-4208

jerryggroup@aol.com