Fannie Mae Expects Slow But Sure Housing Growth in 2015

Where the U.S. housing market is concerned,Fannie Mae chief economist Doug Duncan said he is anticipating overall weaker home sales in 2014 than in 2013. But he expects that overall home sales in 2015 will post their best performance since 2007 despite seeing only moderate growth for the year.

The forecast on the state of the nation's housing market and on the overall economy were included in the Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research Group's October 2014 Economic Outlook, published on Thursday.

"We lowered our expectation for housing starts just slightly to one million units for 2014, but our view of mortgage originations has not changed," Duncan said. "Our estimate for 2013 was in line with the recent release of 2013 data under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act, and our projection of total production in 2014 is little changed at approximately $1.1 trillion. For 2015, we are cautiously optimistic that ongoing labor market improvements, low mortgage rates, rising inventories, and some easing of lending standards will boost home sales by roughly 5.0 percent. However, we still believe housing will continue along its upward grind rather than have the breakout year some are expecting."

Economic growth has been slow on a global scale this year, but that has not dimmed the outlook for the U.S. economy, according to the findings of Fannie Mae's ESR Group. Real economic growth in the U.S. seems poised to exceed 3.0 percent for the second half of 2014, which is expected to provide a solid basis for continued growth into 2015.The slow global economic growth may prevent the Federal Reserve Board from making any interest rate policy changes until Q3 2014, it has not prevented a positive outlook for the economy in the U.S.

"Given the expected strengthening economic activity in the U.S. in the second half of the year, we continue to expect to finish just above 2 percent growth for all of 2014," Duncan said. "The risks are tilted to the downside due to current geopolitical events in Russia, Ukraine, Hong Kong, and the Middle East, as well as the economic slowdown in the Eurozone, China, and Japan. However, recent data suggest these factors have not significantly swayed American consumers. Real consumer spending is poised to pick up in the second half of 2014 from the first half, due in large part to improving labor market conditions, continued declines in gasoline prices, and a subdued pace of inflation."

For more information contact

Jerry Gusman, The Gusman Group

(888) 213-4208

Financial Regulators Finalize QRM Rule

Federal regulators announced on Tuesday they have finalized a rule establishing a risk retention framework for mortgage lenders securitizing and selling loans.

The so-called qualified residential mortgage (QRM) rule, which was put up for consideration by FDIC's board of directors Tuesday morning, would require banks to retain at least 5 percent of a loan's risk when packing mortgages to sell to investors in the secondary market. The rule comes as a response to last decade's housing bubble, when lenders let their standards slip and passed on the risk to investors, resulting in an economic crash as those mortgages defaulted.

The QRM rule is one of the bigger provisions mandated by the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, with co-author Barney Frank remarking in the past that risk retention is "the single most important part of the bill."

Regulatory leaders agreed, assuring lawmakers last month that they were close to completing the rulemaking.

The road to finalizing a QRM rule has been a bumpy one. Regulators—including FDIC, HUD, the Federal Reserve, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)—first proposed a draft in 2011.

The group released a second proposal in 2013, removing some of the more contentious provisions—in particular, a requirement that banks must retain risk on mortgages with down payments lower than 20 percent—in response to industry concerns.

The finalized rule is more closely aligned with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's (CFPB) qualified mortgage (QM) rule implemented early this year. Both rules exclude from qualification mortgages with debt-to-income ratios exceeding 43 percent, and both prohibit loans with riskier features like balloon payments or terms longer than 30 years.

In separate statements released Tuesday, regulators expressed optimism that the finalized rule will give the housing finance sector greater certainty, opening the door for more activity from private investors.

"Aligning the Qualified Residential Mortgage standard with the existing Qualified Mortgage definition also means more clarity for lenders and encourages safe and sound lending to creditworthy borrowers," FHFA Director Mel Watt said. "Lenders have wanted and needed to know what the new rules of the road are and this rule defines them."

Comptroller of the Currency Thomas J. Curry said securitizations can provide an incentive for lax underwriting if the weak credits can be transferred from originators to investors with no further responsibility for the loans.

"The rule we are approving today will require lenders to retain some of the risk for the loans that go into securitized pools except for home mortgages that meet the standards necessary under the qualified residential mortgage, or QRM, exception," Curry said. "Under this rule, QRM is equivalent to QM – that is, the Qualified Mortgage rule approved by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau."

Industry groups were also optimistic about Tuesday's announcement, praising policymakers' efforts to avoid confusion by lining up QM and QRM together.

"This rule was required by Dodd-Frank to ensure that loans sold into the secondary market are properly underwritten, a goal which the QM rule also helps to ensure.  It is appropriate and good policy to align the two," said Frank Keating, president and CEO of the American Bankers Association. "This will encourage lenders to continue offering carefully underwritten QM loans, and avoid placing further hurdles before qualified borrowers, allowing them to achieve the American dream of homeownership."

Fore more information contact

Jerry Gusman, The Gusman Group

888-213-4208

Housing Market Cools Off as Inventory Slows

Housing indicators cooled off slightly in September, marking the annual start of what is typically a slower season for the market, according to a report from listings site Realtor.com.

At the national level, Realtor.com reported the median age of September's housing stock was 90 days, four days longer than August's median age as home shoppers back off for the season. Compared to last year, however, September's median inventory age was down three days, indicating demand is still there.

The number of listings last month was approximately 1.87 million, down 2.7 percent annually and 7.9 percent monthly. The decline compares to Redfin's latest analysis, which showed an unexpected bump in inventory from new listings. Redfin's data measures a narrower list of markets nationwide.

As other market indicators have seen steady improvement, inventory has remained a consistent problem, with shortages across the country limiting buyers' options and pushing prices beyond affordability in some areas. According to the National Association of Realtors' latest existing-home sales report, the nation's housing stock sat at a 5.5-month supply in August, short of the six- to seven-month supply considered to be a balanced market. New homes were in even shorter supply at nearly five months.

"To truly relieve the inventory shortage on a sustained basis, new home construction needs to rise by at least 50 percent from the current levels," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.

Though the market's pace has slowed nationally, Realtor.com found 12 major metros are still selling quickly, with each one seeing a median inventory age of less than two months. Those markets include a number of California metros—Oakland, San Jose, San Francisco, San Diego, and Los Angeles-Long Beach—as well as a handful of others around the country, including Denver, Seattle, Houston, Austin, Omaha, Melbourne, and Washington, D.C.

Though largely spaced out geographically, those markets have a number of factors in common that are helping to drive their local housing markets: Notably, they feature the best opportunities for math and science professionals, and they're home to large baby boomer populations.

As Realtor.com explains in its report, the first group tends to pull in a higher median income and brings enhanced buying power, while the second group is rapidly coming to an age when they have to make retirement-related housing decisions.

"When we see homes moving quickly in a particular market, we expect the trend to be supported by signs of local health like growth in economic production and employment," said Jonathan Smoke, chief economist for Realtor.com. "This month, we also observed more out of the ordinary trends including high proportions of math and science professionals, as well as baby boomers in each of the fast moving markets. As the technology industry grows and aging baby boomers decide to make housing moves to support their retirement, we'll continue to see strong housing demand associated with these factors."

For more information contact

Jerry Gusman, The Gusman Group

888-213-4208

A total of 811 U.S. county housing markets (52 percent) were rated as "better off" than they were two years ago, compared to only 11 percent (176 markets) categorized as "worse off," according toRealtyTrac's 2014 Election Housing Scorecardreleased on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, 560 counties (36 percent) were categorized as a "toss-up" as far as the health of housing market in those counties, according to RealtyTrac.

The total population of the markets in the better off category was about 140 million, which accounted for 50 percent of the population in all the housing markets RealtyTrac analyzed for the election housing scorecard. The total population of the worse off markets was 24 million, about 9 percent of the population in markets analyzed. The housing markets that rated as a toss-up had a total population of about 115 million, or 41 percent of the population in markets analyzed.

"The housing market recovery has truly taken hold in about half of the country, but the recovery is weak or experiencing a relapse in the other half," said Daren Blomquist, vice president of RealtyTrac. "Whether because of good government policy, sheer luck or otherwise, the majority of county housing markets in six of the eight states with close U.S. Senate races are better off than they were two years ago. This should favor the incumbent, or the incumbent’s party, all else being equal — which of course we know it is not. The only exceptions were Iowa and Alaska, where the majority of county housing markets were classified as toss-ups compared with two years ago."

RealtyTrac's election housing scorecard rated 1,547 county housing markets in the U.S. based on five factors that affect the health of housing: housing affordability, unemployment rates, median home prices, and foreclosure starts all compared with two years ago, as well as the percentage of seriously underwater homeowners.

With three weeks remaining before the election, RealtyTrac examined the housing market in eight states where the Senate Race is most highly contested: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana and North Carolina. The states that had the highest population out of those eight states in the better off category were Colorado (99 percent, 4.8 million) and Kansas (97 percent, 2 million). The states that had the highest population in the toss-up category were Alaska (81 percent, 387,000) and Iowa (62 percent, 641,000). Only three of those eight states reported at least one county in the worse off category: Iowa (29 percent, 304,000), Georgia (5 percent, 427,000), and North Carolina (4 percent, 387,000), according to RealtyTrac.

For more information contact

Jerry Gusman, The Gusman Group

jerryggroup@aol.com

How to get a mortgage right now, even with bad credit

In his interview with HousingWire, Mel Watt, the director of Federal Housing Finance Agency urges the opening of the mortgage credit box to less-than-optimal borrowers.

"We are getting lenders to reduce some of the credit overlays," he said in the exclusive interview.

Furthermore, FICO scores will ignore debts that have been paid off or settled, and a lesser weight will be assigned to medical bill collections, which account for about half of all unpaid collections on consumers’ credit reports.

Nonetheless, the average FICOs have been going down steadily since 2006 and it’s not hard to see why, what with the housing crisis, the financial meltdown and the general recession and record unemployment and underemployment.

So what can those with a FICO that is under 620 do to get a mortgage?

1. Prepare to pay more

People with poor credit can still get a mortgage, but they will pay far more than even those with credit scores on the margin.

Guidelines from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the GSEs, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, advise waiting at least two years after a short sale, so long as credit after the short sale is good.

Sellers should be advised to do their homework on the mortgage brokers they are working with – shady and dodgy operators are like bottom feeders, looking to prey on those who are more desperate and who aren’t financially savvy, which is how they see people with poor credit.

2. Refinance ASAP

A bad credit mortgage may seem like the borrower is signing away their life on a bad deal, but so long as the borrower maintains their credit after the mortgage is signed, they can be eligible to refinance for a much better deal within two years, and their credit will have improved.

In short, a bad credit mortgage is a short-term solution that gets them in a home. It's important to bear in mind that bad credit needn't follow the borrower longer than necessary.

3. Ask about options

The 30-year mortgage is a popular choice, but maybe not the right one if the borrower's credit is weak. Adjustable rate mortgages are also a possibility, depending on the circumstance, during which time the borrower can work on repairing and maintaining their credit while paying at a lower interest rate than are offered on fixed-rate mortgages.

Many people who had their credit torn up in the recession were not the typical bill skippers. They were hard-working, responsible people whose world was upended through layoffs, downsizing, the loss of contract work, and a dozen other legitimate reasons.

4. Get a co-signer

Many have some other assets, or have family members who are responsible. These people may be willing to co-sign. Federal Housing Administration rules allow for a co-signer on loans.

Above all, check with HUD, FHA, the FHFA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for information on pathways to homeownership for those who have damaged credit.

It is possible to get a mortgage with bad credit today. Possible, but still challenging.

For more information contact

Jerry Gusman

The Gusman Group

(888) 213-4208

jerryggroup@aol.com